The country hasn't changed that much.

A sober-faced journalist peers from the TV screen into my living room. “If the election were held today...” she intones, and then tells me who would win as she recites the results of the latest poll. The introductory phrase is intended to create the impression that what she’s saying is of great significance, but the one thing we all know for sure is that the election won’t be held today. Between the dropping of the writ and election day there’s always six to eight weeks of campaigning. And, as we’ve just seen, campaigns matter.

When the campaign for this latest federal election began I was one of those who expected little change. I thought it was possible that the Conservatives would get the majority they were hoping for, but only by the slimmest of margins. And that all else would probably remain essentially unchanged: Liberals, NDP, Bloc, and perhaps one Green. But, as I’ve said, a lot can happen is a few weeks.

The Conservatives did get their coveted majority winning 166 of the 308 seats. But the rest of the Commons was also radically redrawn. The Liberals were cut down from 77 seats to 34. The Block was decimated, going from 49 seats to 4. The NDP soared to an historic high of 103 seats, and the status of official opposition, up from 37 seats in 2008. And the green got their leader, Elizabeth May elected; their first seat ever.

I hope the country will benefit from the stability of knowing there won’t be a change of government for at least four years, and it will be interesting to see Quebec represented in the House of Commons by a federalist party. The Liberals need to be reminded that the “natural governing party” in a democracy is the people. And a lonely “green” voice, that says it hopes to be a voice for civility, can’t be a bad thing, provided Ms. May can survive that much loneliness.

But, we need to note that there has been considerably less change than the realignment suggests. Our system amplifies small changes, and often produces results that have little to do with voter sympathies. Theoretically, for example, in a five party race, one party could take 100% of the seats with just over 20% of the vote. The likelihood of this actually happening is vanishingly small, but the eccentricities of the system should be kept in mind when analysing what actually happened.

In Quebec, the Bloc lost over 90% of it’s seats, but this is not the wholesale rejection we might imagine. It actually represents a mere 15% decline in popular vote. The NDP, on the other hand have increased their representation in Parliament 278% with an increase of less than 12.5% in voter preference. The Liberals have plummeted to third party status for the first time in their history, with a decline of only 7.3% in their vote share. And the Conservatives have taken control of the House of Commons, taking 53.9% of the seats, with only 39.6% of the votes, and a mere 2% increase in their voter share.

The country has not changed nearly as much as some are suggesting, and not nearly as much as the House of Commons. Relatively small changes produced this startling result, and small changes could turn it all back.

Good Long Weekend

My goodness! An awful lot has happened since April 8, my last blog, but it was really that April 30 - May 2 long weekend that did the trick. That 72 hour period saw the demise of Michael Ignatieff, Gilles Duceppe, and Osama bin Ladin, and the rise of Stephen Harper and Jack Layton. Well, you can’t have everything, but I think, all in all, most would say it was a pretty good weekend. Of course, some might be insulted that I’ve lumped the demise of Ignatieff and Duceppe in with that of bin Ladin, but those al-Qaeda folks complain about everything. Who cares what they think?

And I might as well admit right off the top, I do believe bin Ladin is dead. The US government says he is, and al-Qaeda has confirmed it. Admittedly, both these organizations have lied to us in the past, but not usually about the same thing in the same way. There is, of course, the bit about the body they dumped in the ocean, the picture they won’t show us, the DNA evidence that only a half dozen people can vouch for, and the fact that only a half dozen people can actually claim to have been there when they killed him. Well, I still think he’s dead.

There are people who don’t believe it. One guy on a phone-in show said he’d buy it when they produced the death certificate, but then backtracked pondering whether it might be created by the same people who created Obama’s birth certificate. Perhaps it was Donald Trump, but I don’t think we should pay any more attention to him till he comes clean about what’s happening to his hair.

And, on a more serious note, I do think it’s interesting that there seems to be a tacit admission by the Americans that this was a kill, not a capture mission. It’s understandable if it was, of course. Indeed, it would be hard to imagine that it wasn’t. But that does make it an assassination, raising the spectre of the CIA’s worst historical practices. And it’s a violation of both International and American law. This is a bad thing. And, if he was captured and murdered, it’s a war crime.

Now, it’s not that I want a fair trial for bin Ladin. I want a fair trial for me, and much more, for all the people he and his friends terrorized and murdered over the years, for the families of his victims, and even for those who were sympathetic to his cause.

Trials, with all their limitations, have a way of bringing to light things we could never otherwise know. And it’s a shame that such a dark figure, and such a dark period, should end shrouded in the obscurity of a covert military operation. The rule of law is a hindrance to the great powers of the world, and a protection for the little folk. We’re all little folk, and we deserve more than a confused account of what happened, even if it comes from “the good guys”.

I’ll leave my comments on the federal election for my next blog. Right now I’d like to hear your response to this bin Ladin affair.

Do you think it matters that he’s gone?

Do you believe the story the Americans tell of his demise?

Do you believe it matters that there will be no trial?

Have you felt safer in May than you did in April?